WS #13995

Markets are in a risk-on mode with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh record high, driven by a benign July PPI print (flat m/m vs +0.2% expected) that reinforces Fed hold expectations for September. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Seeking Alpha, Cboe, and GDELT. The energy complex is under pressure, with WTI and Brent both down over 3% as investors shift focus from Hormuz supply risks to demand concerns and rising US inventories, despite ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait. This oil decline is a counter-signal to the prevailing escalation narrative, dampening the bullish energy thesis and providing a tailwind for airlines and consumer discretionary. In tech, Cisco (CSCO) is down ~7-10% despite an earnings beat, as investors lock in profits and focus on guidance, while Dell (DELL) and Lenovo surge on AI hardware demand, and Microsoft (MSFT) gets a price target hike to $625 from JPMorgan. Cerebras (CBRS) is down ~14% on an earnings miss, highlighting AI volatility. Anthropic's potential $2T IPO continues to be a major theme, with multiple sources (Ars Technica, GDELT) confirming investor expectations of $100-120B annualized revenue by end-2026. The US government's new policy allowing private firms to conduct offensive cyber operations is a novel development with potential implications for cybersecurity stocks. Overall, the dominant narrative is a tech-led rally with cooling inflation, while geopolitical tensions remain elevated but are not currently driving oil prices higher.