WS #14005

Markets are rallying to record highs on soft July PPI (flat m/m vs +0.2% expected) and cooling CPI, which has boosted expectations the Fed will hold rates at 3.50-3.75% in September (FedWatch probability up to 67.9%). Oil prices are falling ~2% on IEA demand downgrade and US crude stockpile build, despite ongoing Middle East tensions and Hormuz stalemate. Tech leads with S&P 500 hitting intraday record, Nasdaq +1.2%, as investors rotate back into megacaps (MSFT +1.4%, NVDA +0.6%, AAPL +0.5%). Cisco (CSCO) tumbles ~8% on margin guidance miss despite strong Q4 and $9.3B AI orders, while SanDisk (SNDK) surges 14% on $93.9B contracted revenue at Investor Day. Cerebras (CBRS) drops 13% on stable backlog despite revenue beat. Tariff refunds continue to flow: over 40 S&P 500 companies reported ~$9.6B in refunds, including AAPL $2.2B, NKE $986M, FDX $800M, AMZN $640M, GM $500M, boosting earnings. OpenAI's CRO Denise Dresser departs, second major exec exit in days, ahead of expected blockbuster IPO. Anthropic investors eye $2T valuation for October IPO, potentially largest ever. Ukraine strikes Gazprom's 200,000-bpd Salavat refinery, fourth attack in three days, escalating Russian refining capacity losses. Iran and US clash over Hormuz control, with Iran asserting full control, keeping oil supply risk elevated. Tesla's Swedish union IF Metall ends nearly 3-year strike after Tesla buys out striking members, removing a labor overhang. US sends USS George Washington to Middle East to relieve Lincoln, a planned rotation but signals sustained presence. Databricks completes $5B round at $190B valuation, delaying IPO. Dell (DELL) hits $500 for first time on Lenovo AI server revenue surge. Michael Burry doubles down on NVDA short, calling $500B financing deal a 'Wall Street stunt' with 'shades of Enron', a contrarian bearish signal.