WS #14014

The dominant narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz closure and its oil market impact, but this window shows a notable shift: oil prices are falling (WTI -1.44% to $82.07, Brent -1.27% to $87.85) despite continued Iranian defiance, as the market weighs the possibility of de-escalation and the IEA's demand cut. The US Energy Secretary claims oil flows are recovering to ~9 million bpd through Hormuz, though independent tracking suggests only half that, creating a credibility gap that could fuel volatility. Iran reiterates that the strait remains blocked until its conditions are met, and CENTCOM is reportedly pushing for renewed strikes on Iranian infrastructure, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. Meanwhile, the July PPI came in flat (below 0.2% expected), reinforcing the soft-inflation narrative and boosting equities to record highs, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high. Tech/AI remains bifurcated: Micron and Sandisk surge on AI memory demand, Cisco tumbles 8.8% on margin concerns despite strong orders, and Anthropic's potential $2T IPO raises valuation concerns. Apple is reportedly in talks to pay publishers for Siri AI content, and there are reports of a delayed iPhone 18 launch due to component shortages. The Fed is now widely expected to hold rates in September (65.6% probability), with a hike still possible later in the year. Gold and silver are pulling back on profit-taking and higher-rate concerns.