WS #14057

The dominant Middle East narrative remains stable with no new escalation or de-escalation signals. Oil prices hold firm with no fresh catalysts. No counter-signals or non-dominant-narrative developments emerged. This window carries 5 key development(s), 3 at significance:high: Two UAE tankers attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Iran asserts full control; US threatens unprecedented sanctions and indefinite naval blockade of Iran; Ukrainian drones strike major Russian refineries, tightening fuel markets. A further 2 development(s) sit below significance:high.