WS #14069

The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz escalation narrative continues to escalate, with new attacks on ADNOC tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and US Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing unprecedented economic isolation measures against Iran next week. Oil prices are set for weekly gains of ~3-4% (Brent ~$87, WTI ~$81) as shipping traffic through the strait remains well below average, despite US claims of recovery. The weak US retail sales (-0.6% vs +0.1% expected) and UMich sentiment (51.0 vs 54.5 expected) have crushed September Fed hike odds, pushing the dollar to its lowest since May and supporting short-dated Treasuries. Equities remain resilient near record highs, with the S&P 500 essentially flat. In corporate news, Reddit (RDDT) is soaring on S&P 500 inclusion, SpaceX's $60B Cursor acquisition is pressuring its stock, and OpenAI's second senior executive exit this week adds uncertainty ahead of its IPO. Michael Burry has doubled down on AI shorts (ORCL, MU, NBIS), while RBC raised price targets across software names (SNOW, CRWD, PANW, OKTA).