WS #14072

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz escalation, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING. Key developments in this window: (1) Two ADNOC tankers were attacked by drones in the Strait of Hormuz, with UAE, Qatar, Egypt, and Bahrain condemning Iran; this is corroborated by multiple sources (UKMTO, ADNOC, AP, GDELT). (2) The US has threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, with Treasury Secretary Bessent promising unprecedented economic measures next week. (3) Hormuz traffic has nearly halted, with only two vessels transiting on Friday, and Iran's parliament has approved a strategic plan to formalize control of the strait. These developments are bullish for oil (XOM, CVX, MPC) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and shipping (MATX). (4) Russia's Black Sea oil terminal Sheskharis suspended loadings after drone attacks, adding to supply concerns. (5) US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, and UMich sentiment dropped to 51.0, crushing Fed hike odds; this is stagflationary, supporting gold (GLD) and pressuring the dollar. (6) OpenAI's revenue run rate topped $40B ahead of a potential $1T IPO, with CFO investor meetings today; this is bullish for AI sentiment but may pressure incumbents like MSFT and GOOGL. (7) Apple proposed a 15% commission on link-out purchases, a regulatory development that could impact AAPL. (8) Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure financing initiative is gaining traction, with Goldman Sachs seeking investors; this is bullish for NVDA and AI infrastructure names. (9) The Trade Desk plunged 22% on weak guidance, a significant single-stock move. (10) Tesla plans to unveil a redesigned Roadster as early as this month, a potential catalyst for TSLA. (11) JPMorgan ended its banking relationship with Polymarket, a minor regulatory signal. (12) Bitcoin dropped to $62.5K, with crypto sentiment in fear; JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley boosted ETF positions, a mixed signal.