WS #14121

The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to escalate, with multiple sources corroborating a third ADNOC tanker attack in the strait and Trump's threat to declare it a US territory, which Iran has rejected. Shipping traffic has collapsed to ~9 vessels per day versus 130-140 pre-war, and the US SPR has fallen below 300 million barrels, raising concerns about cavern integrity and future emergency response capability. Oil prices are climbing (Brent approaching $90), and US gasoline prices are around $4/gallon, creating political risk for Trump ahead of midterms. This remains strongly bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, OXY) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer discretionary. Separately, the AI/tech narrative is intensifying: Anthropic's Q2 revenue reportedly topped $11.5B (up 14x YoY) with positive adjusted operating income, targeting a $2T IPO valuation; Nvidia has reduced its credit guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio data center to under $120B (from $250B), signaling risk concerns; and OpenAI's enterprise revenue has surpassed consumer for the first time at $40B ARR. Berkshire Hathaway's 13F confirms an 83% increase in Alphabet stake to $37.8B, making GOOGL its third-largest holding. Apple is developing its own AI model for China with Alibaba, and has been warned by Commerce Secretary Lutnick against buying Chinese memory chips, which could pressure AAPL's supply chain. The memory chip shortage narrative continues, with Dell shifting to 3nm chiplets and Super Micro's blowout order book ($60B in new orders) reigniting the AI trade. Jane Street reportedly lost ~$15B in July, its first monthly loss since 2016, highlighting leverage and opacity in private trading.