WS #14178

The dominant theme remains US-Iran/Hormuz tensions, with the Iran-Oman shipping map agreement (first surfaced earlier) now clarified by Iranian FM Araghchi as a technical matter 'completely separate' from reopening the Strait, which hinges on US compliance. This is a de-escalation signal for oil prices, though the US is reportedly seeking new mediation channels via Greece and Austria, and the Jerusalem Post reports the US may unfreeze Iranian assets in exchange for free Hormuz transit. Ukraine's use of British-made Nyan drones for deep strikes inside Russia (targeting oil refineries near Moscow, Yaroslavl, Volgograd, and Belgorod) is corroborated by multiple sources (EA WorldView, The Times, NPR, and several Bluesky posts), marking an escalation in the Ukraine conflict and adding a geopolitical risk premium to energy markets. The Wildberries warehouse drone attack narrative is ongoing but with no new data points this window, so it is not re-listed. On the corporate front, Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 13F shows a massive increase in its Alphabet stake (to ~106 million shares, valued at $37.76B), and Greg Abel agreed to a $10B investment in Alphabet, a high-significance positive for GOOGL. Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday in a potential $50B+ buyout, sending WDAY shares up ~18% on Aug 13; this is a major software M&A signal. Nvidia's SEC filing reveals its SpaceX stake is worth ~$21B and Intel stake ~$30B, far exceeding prior estimates, which is bullish for NVDA and INTC. Michael Burry has increased his short position on Nebius (NBIS) at $247, calling it 'the peak of a boom,' a bearish signal for that AI stock. UK inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% in July (from 2.6%) due to the 13% Ofgem energy price cap hike, which could pressure the Bank of England to raise rates in September, a macro headwind for UK and global equities. The S&P 500 CAPE ratio hit 41, a valuation warning sign. Central banks are increasingly diversifying away from the dollar into gold (OMFIF and World Gold Council surveys), supporting gold prices. The narrative arc for middle_east_tensions is STABLE-to-DE-ESCALATING on the Hormuz shipping front, but ESCALATING on the Ukraine deep-strike front.