WS #14207

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and covert oil flows continuing to cap prices. The key development this window is the confirmation that 'dark' oil flows through Hormuz are running at higher volumes than market estimates (over 4 million bpd, possibly up to 9 million bpd per US Energy Secretary), which is keeping Brent in the $80-90 range and preventing a supply shock. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, Fortune, Mint) and is a high-significance signal that the oil market remains well-supplied despite the blockade, dampening bullish oil price expectations. Additionally, Trump's pledge to declare Hormuz a US territory is seen as rhetorical and not a policy shift, with Iran dismissing it, so it does not materially change the risk calculus. The Israel-Lebanon strikes (11 dead) and the upcoming Monday ceasefire expiration add geopolitical risk but are not yet market-moving. On the tech side, Nvidia's $21B SpaceX stake disclosure is a notable data point, but the stock has already declined from its quarter-end value, and the AI narrative remains intact. Taiwan's GDP forecast upgrade to 11.05% (39-year high) on AI demand is a strong positive for semiconductor supply chain, though it is a regional data point. The Fed minutes and retail earnings next week are the key macro events to watch, with markets pricing only 27% chance of a September hike. Overall, the theme is stable with no new escalation or de-escalation, but the oil flow data is a counter-signal to any bullish oil spike thesis.