WS #14246

The dominant market driver remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. The 60-day MOU expired today with no deal, and Iran has shifted to a 'fully offensive' posture, setting a deadline of a few weeks for US implementation of the MOU, threatening to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz if diplomacy fails. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Reuters, Al Jazeera, and GDELT. Trump's threat to bomb Oman if it interferes with Hormuz talks, reported by Fox News and syndicated widely, adds to escalation risk. Oil prices are rising, with Brent near $89.44 and WTI around $82.95, and European gas at 61.22 euros/MWh. The Houthis claim a missile attack on a Saudi military ship in the Red Sea, further tightening the conflict. This is a high-significance escalation with direct implications for energy (XOM, CVX), airlines (DAL, UAL), and refiners (MPC, PSX).