WS #14264

The dominant narrative remains Middle East escalation, with the Strait of Hormuz closure persisting and oil prices holding near $89 Brent / $82 WTI. Iran has seized a Liberia-flagged tanker near Qeshm Island, and the US has threatened to bomb Oman over its transit-route talks with Iran, while Iran's FM cites 'complexity' and 'destructive efforts' for slow progress. However, a key counter-signal emerged: Bloomberg reports Gulf states are covertly shipping oil through Hormuz with transponders off, with volumes exceeding 4M bpd, which is helping keep prices in the $80-90 range and dampening the risk premium. This is corroborated by multiple sources and suggests the market may be pricing in a partial workaround, capping crude upside. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, reflecting inflation and debt concerns, with Citadel Securities warning the Fed's reluctance to tighten keeps long-end yields elevated. Canada-US tariff talks remain far apart ahead of the Aug 19 deadline, with PM Carney expecting to speak to Trump within 48 hours, but sources say optimism is eroding. AI infrastructure remains a strong theme: Nvidia's $1.5B investment in SB Energy and up to $120B guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio data center (down from $250B) is corroborated by multiple outlets, and memory-chip stocks (MU, SNDK) continue to surge on US pressure to keep Apple away from Chinese DRAM. Anthropic's revenue growth and potential $2T IPO valuation are lifting tech sentiment. Refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX) are at historic highs with crack spreads near $59/bbl, but CNBC warns this run is historically unsustainable with negative forward returns. SpaceX shares rose after institutional 13F disclosures including Google, Nvidia, and Saudi PIF. Overall, the market is mixed with S&P 500 flat, but energy, AI, and bond yields are the key movers.