WS #14305

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with the Strait of Hormuz closure persisting and oil prices rising for a third session. Brent crude is above $91/barrel and WTI above $85, as Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf reiterated that Hormuz will not reopen until US demands are met, and a vessel was struck by a projectile in the strait, causing a crew casualty. Trump's threat to bomb Oman adds a new escalation vector, with multiple sources (Al Jazeera, GDELT, Bluesky) corroborating. This continues to pressure energy prices and airline stocks while benefiting oil producers and refiners. The bond selloff persists, with 30-year Treasury yields at multi-decade highs, pressuring growth and tech stocks. In corporate news, Baidu shares tumbled ~7% premarket on a fifth straight quarterly revenue decline, while Klarna beat Q2 estimates but issued weak FY26 guidance, sending shares lower. Fabrinet fell ~10% on soft Q1 guidance, and Marvell dropped ~6% on AI memory complex concerns. Nvidia's $105 billion guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio data center is a major AI infrastructure commitment, supporting the AI capex narrative. Google's purchase of Spirit Airlines data for AI training is notable but likely low-impact. The VIX hit a 2026 low of 14.2, signaling complacency despite rising risks.