WS #14317

The dominant narrative remains the Middle East escalation, with the Strait of Hormuz tanker strike (UKMTO report, corroborated by multiple sources) and the US-Venezuela oil deal counter-signal both persisting. The tanker incident, reported 12NM north of Khasab, Oman, with no casualties, reinforces the ongoing supply disruption risk. The US-Venezuela deal, where Trump confirmed Venezuelan oil will refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, acts as a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis, though analysts note Venezuela's dilapidated infrastructure limits near-term impact. The Fed's hawkish stance, with Chair Warsh signaling potential rate hikes, continues to pressure gold and EM currencies, with the Philippine peso hitting record lows. The market is also digesting a potential $17B Aon-USI Insurance deal, which could impact insurance sector valuations.