WS #14351

The dominant US-Iran escalation narrative and the Fed subpoena story remain unchanged, with no new data points, counter-signals, or de-escalation signals detected. The situation is stable relative to the previous synthesis. This window carries 4 key development(s), 2 at significance:high: US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak Island; Iran retaliates with missile attacks on US bases in Jordan; Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tone lifts September rate-hike odds to 57%. A further 2 development(s) sit below significance:high.