WS #14676

Global markets are navigating a convergence of geopolitical escalation and monetary tightening. The dominant narrative remains the Middle East, where the canonical theme of escalation is reinforced by reports of a 60-day ceasefire roadmap from Iran and Pakistan's kinetic response to Afghan drone launches. This has pushed WTI crude up 2% to $94, maintaining the energy bullish/airline bearish dynamic established in the previous window. Concurrently, the US-China trade truce extension provides a partial offset to the risk premium, though it is insufficient to fully counter the supply shock in oil. In the macro sector, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has signaled readiness for FX intervention and clarified its balance sheet stance, dampening immediate bearish pressure on the CHF while highlighting global inflation risks. The Swedish Riksbank held rates at 1.75%, signaling caution. Meanwhile, the US equity market remains under pressure from spiking Treasury yields, with futures lower following a deep selloff on Wednesday. The tech sector is seeing mixed signals: Meta's new AI hardware launch is generating headlines but facing premarket weakness, while Broadcom (AVGO) is down 6.8% on unknown premarket drivers.