WS #14732

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated sharply, with the Senate voting to end the war with Iran while Ukraine confirms drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. This dual-front pressure is driving Brent crude past $108, creating a bifurcated market where energy and defense sectors benefit while airlines and consumer discretionary face margin destruction. Concurrently, the US Treasury executed a $10.4 billion buyback of 20-30 year debt, a move that failed to suppress yields, which remain elevated near 5.45% on persistent inflation fears and supply concerns. In the technology sector, a significant divergence is emerging. Meta is rallying on the successful launch of its Muse AI agent and new hardware, signaling strong consumer demand for AI integration. However, the AI infrastructure narrative is facing headwinds as Oracle issued a force majeure notice for its New Mexico data center, dragging down Arm Holdings and raising questions about the pace of AI build-outs. Meanwhile, Google's announcement of Project Suncatcher (AI compute in space) is providing a secondary lift to the broader space and satellite sector.