WS #14739

Geopolitical risk in the Middle East has escalated sharply, with Houthi forces reporting strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities and French military assets deployed to protect the Yanbu oil port. This escalation is driving Brent crude above $105 and pushing the 10-Year Treasury yield to a 22-year high of 5.17%, reflecting market fears of persistent inflation and supply disruption. While diplomatic channels remain open with US-Iran talks on a phased Hormuz reopening, the immediate market impact is a bifurcation between energy beneficiaries and rate-sensitive sectors. Simultaneously, the macro environment is tightening further as the Fed signals more rate hikes and the Senate rejects resolutions curbing executive war powers. In the technology sector, high-NA EUV machinery adoption by ASML, Intel, and TSMC provides a structural bullish catalyst for the semiconductor supply chain, though this is partially offset by bearish options flow in Salesforce and regulatory scrutiny on AI models. Bitcoin is testing key moving averages near $84,000, showing resilience despite the risk-off macro backdrop.