WS #14765

The dominant market narrative has shifted from geopolitical de-escalation to a renewed supply-side energy crisis and a sovereign debt stress event. While the previous synthesis highlighted Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a stabilizing factor, the current 10-minute window reveals a sharp escalation in physical supply destruction: Ukrainian strikes have hit two major Russian oil refineries (Perm and Novoshakhtinsk), directly countering the diplomatic overtures. Simultaneously, the US Treasury market is flashing distress signals as the 10-year yield pierced 5% despite Treasury Secretary Bessent's intervention to buy back long-dated debt, indicating a structural loss of confidence in US duration.