WS #15065
The 10-year Treasury yield is holding at 5.26% as markets price in 93 basis points of rate hikes by June 2027. The oil shock is forcing a 'stagflation repricing' where equities fall alongside rising yields. The rates curve shows extreme convexity, reflecting a hawkish pivot driven by energy inflation rather than robust growth, which is bearish for high-multiple growth stocks and REITs.
Rate Hike Expectations and Stagflation
The 10-year Treasury yield is holding at 5.26% as markets price in 93 basis points of rate hikes by June 2027. The oil shock is forcing a 'stagflation repricing' where equities fall alongside rising yields. The rates curve shows extreme convexity, reflecting a hawkish pivot driven by energy inflation rather than robust growth, which is bearish for high-multiple growth stocks and REITs.