WS #15075
The US consumer is showing extreme divergence: confidence has collapsed to 81.9, missing consensus and weighing on the Dow, yet specific sectors like travel remain robust. Carnival surged 11% on record profits and a raised outlook, defying the broader inflationary narrative. Meanwhile, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index posted a 1.9% annual gain, indicating that housing wealth effects are still supporting balance sheets. This split suggests that while discretionary spending is under pressure, essential and experience-based consumption remains sticky.
Consumer Divergence: Weakness vs Resilience
The US consumer is showing extreme divergence: confidence has collapsed to 81.9, missing consensus and weighing on the Dow, yet specific sectors like travel remain robust. Carnival surged 11% on record profits and a raised outlook, defying the broader inflationary narrative. Meanwhile, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index posted a 1.9% annual gain, indicating that housing wealth effects are still supporting balance sheets. This split suggests that while discretionary spending is under pressure, essential and experience-based consumption remains sticky.