WS #15177
Central bank policy divergence is widening as the RBA warns of a "tsunami" of small business failures due to sustained rate hikes, contrasting sharply with the BoJ Tankan survey which shows Japanese business optimism despite a weak yen and soaring oil prices. In the UK, house price growth has halved as mortgage rates rise, and the US inflation rate remains sticky at 3.4%. This macro backdrop suggests a difficult landing for rate-sensitive sectors, particularly real estate and small-cap industrials, while commodity-linked economies may find unexpected resilience.
Global Macro and Central Bank Divergence
Central bank policy divergence is widening as the RBA warns of a "tsunami" of small business failures due to sustained rate hikes, contrasting sharply with the BoJ Tankan survey which shows Japanese business optimism despite a weak yen and soaring oil prices. In the UK, house price growth has halved as mortgage rates rise, and the US inflation rate remains sticky at 3.4%. This macro backdrop suggests a difficult landing for rate-sensitive sectors, particularly real estate and small-cap industrials, while commodity-linked economies may find unexpected resilience.