WS #15253
The US labor market has shown significant weakness in September, with non-farm payrolls coming in at 29,000 against an 89,000 consensus and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. This data has triggered a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with prediction markets now pricing in only a 16% chance of a rate hike, effectively cementing expectations for a pause or pivot. The soft data is driving a flight to safety in bonds and pressuring rate-sensitive growth stocks, while lifting defensive sectors.
US Labor Market & Fed Pivot
The US labor market has shown significant weakness in September, with non-farm payrolls coming in at 29,000 against an 89,000 consensus and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. This data has triggered a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with prediction markets now pricing in only a 16% chance of a rate hike, effectively cementing expectations for a pause or pivot. The soft data is driving a flight to safety in bonds and pressuring rate-sensitive growth stocks, while lifting defensive sectors.