WS #15289

The geopolitical landscape has shifted from a broad Middle East blockade to a specific, acute crisis in Iran following the resignation of the Oil Minister as exports collapse. This development is partially offset by Kpler data showing Middle East crude exports have returned to pre-war levels, suggesting a rerouting of flows rather than a total chokehold. Concurrently, the G7 has agreed to release strategic petroleum reserves, a definitive counter-signal dampening the bearish energy index thesis and capping upside for oil prices despite the political turmoil in Tehran. In Europe, the Eurozone Sentix Index has fallen to 2.7, confirming economic stagnation and driving the Euro to a 17-month low against the Dollar. This macro weakness is compounded by a North Sea strike threat that could disrupt 30% of UK oil and gas supply via the Forties pipeline, creating a localized energy supply shock that contrasts with the broader G7 reserve release. Meanwhile, Asian equities, led by Japan's Nikkei, rallied 2.4% on softer US jobs data, which has eased rate hike fears and lifted AI-related tech stocks.