WS #15359

Geopolitical tensions have escalated sharply overnight as Ukrainian drones struck a major fuel depot in the Moscow region, reigniting energy supply fears and pushing Brent crude back above $100/bbl. This development counters the previous G7 reserve release narrative, shifting the focus from supply abundance to physical infrastructure vulnerability in the Black Sea and Russia. Concurrently, the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with reports of an LNG carrier strike and shipping disruptions, reinforcing the 'escalation' canonical theme. In the technology sector, the market remains dominated by the AI infrastructure supercycle. AMD's CEO Lisa Su highlighted 'very high' demand and a binding supply agreement with TSMC, while NVIDIA continues its record-breaking trajectory. This supply-side tightness validates the bullish thesis for semiconductor equipment and foundries, though it raises questions about long-term pricing power. Meanwhile, the European energy sector faces a dual pressure from rising geopolitical risk and domestic political instability in France, where borrowing costs hit G7 highs amid default fears linked to Marine Le Pen's fiscal proposals.