WS #15597

Geopolitical risk has de-escalated significantly in the short term as President Trump ruled out military strikes on Iran before the November midterms, easing supply concerns and stabilizing oil prices. This political signal has dampened the escalation narrative, though the underlying tension remains elevated. Concurrently, the US government has escalated regulatory pressure on the tech sector by barring Microsoft from new PERM visa filings amid abuse probes, creating a headwind for labor-intensive tech operations. In the healthcare sector, a sharp divergence is emerging: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is rallying on strong Medicare Advantage star ratings and bonus payment expectations, while its competitor Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) plunged 24% after a contract downgrade eliminated its bonus eligibility. This highlights the critical importance of CMS star ratings in the current Medicare landscape. Meanwhile, defense stocks are seeing mixed signals, with RTX securing a massive $6.3B contract while Project Meridian signals a disruptive procurement shift away from legacy primes.