WS #15732
Despite the oil supply shock and geopolitical escalation, the S&P 500 has avoided a 2% down day for 85 consecutive sessions, indicating strong underlying market resilience. Institutional flows show hedge funds buying US banks for a second week and speculators shorting bonds while longing Nasdaq. This positioning suggests markets are pricing in a 'soft landing' scenario, though the Cleveland Fed's hawkish stance and sticky oil prices pose a risk of a bond market squeeze.
Market Resilience & Macro
Despite the oil supply shock and geopolitical escalation, the S&P 500 has avoided a 2% down day for 85 consecutive sessions, indicating strong underlying market resilience. Institutional flows show hedge funds buying US banks for a second week and speculators shorting bonds while longing Nasdaq. This positioning suggests markets are pricing in a 'soft landing' scenario, though the Cleveland Fed's hawkish stance and sticky oil prices pose a risk of a bond market squeeze.