WS #16269

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The energy market is experiencing a severe supply-side shock as Ukrainian strikes damage Russian oil terminals in the Rostov region, adding to the existing strain from Hormuz shipping disruptions. While Gulf exports have recovered volume, the IEA reports shipping costs are five times pre-war levels, keeping Brent crude elevated near $108. US sanctions on a law firm facilitating Iran's shadow fleet further tighten the financial constraints on these flows, ensuring that physical supply does not translate into price relief.

Geopolitical Energy Shock

The energy market is experiencing a severe supply-side shock as Ukrainian strikes damage Russian oil terminals in the Rostov region, adding to the existing strain from Hormuz shipping disruptions. While Gulf exports have recovered volume, the IEA reports shipping costs are five times pre-war levels, keeping Brent crude elevated near $108. US sanctions on a law firm facilitating Iran's shadow fleet further tighten the financial constraints on these flows, ensuring that physical supply does not translate into price relief.

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