WS #16706
Prediction markets are pricing a decisive Democratic sweep of the US Congress in the 2026 midterms, with Polymarket and Kalshi giving Democrats a 94.5% chance to take the House and a 71.5% chance to take the Senate. This forecast is supported by early voting data showing a surge that outpaces the last midterm cycle in major battlegrounds. The political outcome suggests a shift in regulatory and fiscal policy expectations, potentially impacting sectors sensitive to government spending and regulation.
US Midterm Elections and Political Forecast
Prediction markets are pricing a decisive Democratic sweep of the US Congress in the 2026 midterms, with Polymarket and Kalshi giving Democrats a 94.5% chance to take the House and a 71.5% chance to take the Senate. This forecast is supported by early voting data showing a surge that outpaces the last midterm cycle in major battlegrounds. The political outcome suggests a shift in regulatory and fiscal policy expectations, potentially impacting sectors sensitive to government spending and regulation.