WS #16765
The macro backdrop is increasingly fragile as gross leverage in funds hits 215%, with desks carrying large books on both sides of the market. The tech debt premium has reached a 23-year high, reflecting the cost of funding AI capex. The 10-year Treasury yield is testing critical support at 4.80% and resistance at 4.90%, with JOLTS data serving as the immediate catalyst. The combination of high leverage, expensive debt, and geopolitical risk suggests a market prone to sharp moves on any negative data surprise.
Macro Rates & Market Fragility
The macro backdrop is increasingly fragile as gross leverage in funds hits 215%, with desks carrying large books on both sides of the market. The tech debt premium has reached a 23-year high, reflecting the cost of funding AI capex. The 10-year Treasury yield is testing critical support at 4.80% and resistance at 4.90%, with JOLTS data serving as the immediate catalyst. The combination of high leverage, expensive debt, and geopolitical risk suggests a market prone to sharp moves on any negative data surprise.