WS #5280

The primary new development is a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, directly countering the previous de-escalation narrative. Iran has announced it will close the strait to all commercial shipping within 24 hours, with this threat corroborated by multiple sources including Al Jazeera, BBC, and GDELT. This has triggered an immediate 8% spike in oil prices to $91.10/bbl, reversing the earlier 11% drop and reintroducing inflationary pressures that could dampen the broad market rally. The UK/France defensive mission is now explicitly positioned as a response to this closure threat, with Trump criticizing NATO's response as 'too slow,' adding geopolitical tension. No new corporate or monetary policy signals have emerged in this window, leaving the focus squarely on this oil supply shock.