WS #5614

The dominant signal in this window is a significant de-escalation in US-Iran geopolitical tensions, directly countering the previous narrative. Multiple high-signal sources (CNBC, jetstream, polymarket, Truth Social) report President Trump has extended the ceasefire with Iran, citing a 'seriously fractured' Iranian government and a request from Pakistani leaders. This development, corroborated across news and prediction markets, acts as a powerful counter-signal to the previous oil supply crisis thesis, likely dampening the bullish pressure on energy prices and bearish pressure on airlines and indices from inflation fears. Concurrently, oil-sensitive earnings are emerging: United Airlines (UAL) lowered its profit outlook amid jet fuel price headwinds, a direct transmission of the prior oil spike, while Range Resources (RRC) reported strong earnings beating estimates, benefiting from higher natural gas and NGL realizations. In the MAG7 space, a large dark pool alert for Meta (META) shows a $307M institutional buy, a bullish signal independent of macro narratives, while Adobe (ADBE) announced a new $25B stock repurchase program, a positive catalyst for the stock. Other earnings from financials (e.g., W.R. Berkley, East West Bancorp) and healthcare (UnitedHealth) show beats but are less market-moving relative to the macro shift.