WS #5657

The dominant signal in this window is a significant escalation in the Iran-US conflict, directly impacting global oil supply and energy markets. Despite President Trump extending the ceasefire, Iran has resumed attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seized two vessels, and declared any blockade equivalent to bombardment, warning of military response. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, BBC, jetstream.bsky.priority) and contradicts the earlier narrative of de-escalation, indicating heightened geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, with reports of tankers bypassing the blockade (FT/Vortexa) adding uncertainty to oil flow. This escalation is bullish for oil prices (Brent already at $99.08) and energy stocks (XOM, CVX), while bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer sectors due to higher fuel costs. Additionally, drone strikes have shut down two Russian refineries (Tuapse and Novokuibyshevsk), further tightening global oil supply. In corporate news, Boeing (BA) reported a narrower-than-expected loss and rising deliveries, a positive for industrials, while IBM (IBM) is expected to report higher Q1 earnings. The EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, which may provide some stability but does not offset the oil crisis. The Iran conflict remains the highest-signal development, with immediate market-moving implications.