WS #5783

The dominant signal in this window remains the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, with President Trump making multiple statements: U.S. vessels are fully armed and prepared, Iran may have reloaded during a hiatus, the Strait of Hormuz is under total U.S. control and will remain closed until a deal, and nuclear strikes would be worse than oil at $200/barrel. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky, Alpaca, Nikkei Asia) and is driving oil prices sharply higher. Separately, Intel reported a massive Q1 earnings beat (Non-GAAP EPS $0.29 vs $0.01 estimate, revenue $13.58B vs $12.43B) and issued Q2 guidance above estimates (revenue $13.8B-$14.8B vs $13.06B consensus), sending shares up 15% in after-hours. The Intel CFO also mentioned that Intel is hiking semiconductor prices to account for rising expenses, with some increases already reflected in Q1 results. On the macro front, Meta is reportedly laying off 8,000 employees as part of an AI efficiency push. The Iran conflict escalation remains the highest-significance development, with broad market implications for energy, airlines, and defense. The Intel earnings beat is a high-significance positive for the semiconductor sector and tech broadly, potentially offsetting some macro headwinds.