WS #5815

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with Trump ordering the US military to 'shoot and kill' Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Strait remains effectively closed. This is corroborated by multiple sources including The Guardian, Bloomberg, and Reuters, with Brent crude prices already elevated and the Strait's closure threatening global oil supply. The situation is escalating, with Iran signaling readiness for both diplomatic talks and military conflict. The second major signal is the release of DeepSeek's V4 AI model, which could intensify competition in the AI space and pressure US tech stocks. Third, Intel's revenues soar aided by AI boom, a positive signal for INTC. Fourth, Tesla's robotaxi rollout is going slower than expected, with Musk now saying significant revenue won't happen until 2027, which is bearish for TSLA. Finally, the Bank of England deputy warns stock markets are too high and set to fall, a bearish macro signal. In this window, the US-Iran conflict continues to dominate, with Trump ruling out nuclear weapons but emphasizing conventional strikes. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, keeping oil prices elevated. Additionally, major tech layoffs are announced: Meta plans to cut 8,000 jobs (10% of workforce) and Microsoft offers voluntary early retirement to ~9,000 employees, both citing AI investment priorities. This signals a structural shift in tech employment towards AI, which could pressure near-term sentiment but boost AI-related stocks. The Warner Bros. Discovery-Paramount merger is approved by shareholders, a $111B deal that could reshape media landscape. Eurozone PMIs point to stagflation risks, with composite PMI below 50 and price indices rising. Lufthansa cancels 20,000 flights due to rising fuel costs, directly impacting airline stocks. Tesla's Q1 earnings show 17% net profit rise but focus shifts to AI and robotaxi, with slower-than-expected rollout. Ford CEO says Tesla has fallen behind, calling BYD the new benchmark. Google Cloud unveils new TPU v8 architecture, boosting MediaTek (MTK) stock. The overall narrative is one of geopolitical risk, AI-driven restructuring, and stagflation fears.