WS #5842

The dominant signal in this window is the DOJ dropping its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which is corroborated by multiple sources (NPR, Seeking Alpha, and multiple social media posts). This development likely clears the path for Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as the next Fed chair, reducing political uncertainty around Fed leadership. The news is bullish for markets as it removes a key overhang on Fed independence. Separately, the Strait of Hormuz situation escalates with Trump authorizing the US Navy to shoot and kill Iranian fast boats attempting to mine the strait, which carries roughly 20% of global crude oil and LNG trade. This is corroborated by multiple sources and increases geopolitical risk premium for oil. The IEA warns of strained global LNG supplies through 2027 due to infrastructure damage from the US-Israel war on Iran, projecting a cumulative loss of 120 billion cubic meters of supply through 2030. The US and EU signed a critical minerals deal to weaken China's grip on supply chains, which is bullish for critical minerals and battery supply chains. Keybanc raised Intel's price target to $110 from $70, and Intel shares surged 23% after strong earnings, lifting the broader semiconductor sector. Bank of America's Metals Desk projects silver could reach $309 by year-end, signaling a dramatic rally for the precious metal. The University of Michigan's final April sentiment index dropped to 49.8, the lowest since 1978, indicating deep consumer pessimism. The previous window's dominant narratives (DOJ probe drop, Strait of Hormuz escalation, Intel surge) are carried forward as they remain active and unrefuted.