WS #5889

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis and its second-order effects on energy markets. The IEA warns the LNG market will remain 'tight' through 2027 due to Middle East war damage to Qatar's liquefaction infrastructure, with cumulative supply losses of ~120 bcm between 2026-2030. This is corroborated by a Baker Hughes executive stating the Strait will likely not fully reopen for months. The US has captured the resulting market void, now exporting 33.8% of global LNG (up from 27.2% pre-war). US retail sales surged 1.7% in March, but largely driven by a 15.5% spike in gasoline station spending as pump prices exceeded $4/gallon. Meanwhile, the US-Iran diplomatic track is de-escalating: US envoys leave Saturday for Pakistan talks, and the DOJ dropped its probe of Fed Chair Powell, clearing the path for Kevin Warsh. On the tech front, Google confirmed 75% of its new code is now AI-generated, signaling a structural shift in software productivity. Apple is in transition as Tim Cook steps aside, with multiple analysts publishing bullish takes on the new CEO. The $16B Oracle data center project in Michigan secured financing from Blackstone and PIMCO, validating AI infrastructure demand. Cohere merged with Aleph Alpha at a $20B valuation with a $600M investment from Schwarz Group, creating a transatlantic AI powerhouse. Rivian has started production of the R2 SUV, directly targeting Tesla Model Y. In crypto, Bitcoin price prediction markets are active around the $70K level.