WS #5908

The dominant signal in this window is a potential de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with multiple sources reporting that Iran has reopened the strait. This directly counters the previous narrative of a prolonged blockade and energy supply disruption. The reopening is corroborated by reports of flights resuming at Tehran airport and a US-Iran ceasefire holding. This development is highly significant for oil markets, likely driving crude prices lower and benefiting sectors sensitive to energy costs (airlines, shipping, consumer). Separately, the DOJ has ended its probe into Powell, clearing a key hurdle for Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation. The Senate Banking Committee vote is set for April 29, with odds now at 82-83%. This reduces near-term policy uncertainty and could be modestly positive for financials. Other items are noise: a royal tribute, a train collision in Denmark, a fire in Delhi, and routine market commentary.