WS #5927

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, with a significant escalation: Trump has cancelled the planned Pakistan trip by envoys Witkoff and Kushner for ceasefire talks, after Iran's foreign minister left Islamabad without meeting US officials. This confirms the hardening US stance and reduces near-term de-escalation prospects, keeping oil supply disruption risks elevated. The IRGC has declared control of the Strait of Hormuz a strategic priority, and Baker Hughes forecasts the strait won't fully reopen until H2 2026, supporting sustained oil price premiums. Separately, the DOJ has dropped its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, clearing the way for Kevin Warsh's confirmation vote as Fed Chair scheduled for next week, a significant macro development that removes a key uncertainty for monetary policy. On the corporate front, Meta is laying off 8,000 employees (10% of workforce) to focus on AI investments, a high-significance signal for the tech sector. The UK's CMA moving to block the Paramount/Warner Bros Discovery merger is an ongoing antitrust action. The NATO-Russia tension continues with RAF Typhoon scrambles near Romanian airspace, but this is an ongoing theme without new escalation.