WS #5980

The assassination attempt on Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner remains the dominant geopolitical risk, with the acting attorney general confirming the suspect likely targeted administration officials. This reinforces elevated uncertainty, particularly for defense and energy sectors. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes continue to escalate oil supply disruptions: a drone hit a chemical complex in Volgograd and a fire erupted at the Yaroslavl refinery, adding to the 6% of Russian refining capacity already offline. The Strait of Hormuz blockade and stalled Iran-US negotiations persist, keeping oil supply risks elevated. Separately, AI fears are rattling software loans, with investors picking winners and losers, signaling sector rotation within tech. The Syria trial of an Assad-era official is a low-significance geopolitical event with limited market impact.