WS #6036

The data dump is dominated by the escalating Iran conflict and its economic fallout. Oil prices are climbing as US-Iran peace talks stall and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, with Brent topping $107/bbl. This is corroborated by Bloomberg, Axios, and multiple social media sources. The eurozone is now slipping into contraction (Composite PMI 48.6) due to the war, with services hit hard and input costs surging. This is a significant escalation from the previous window's 'stalled talks' status. Separately, a 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck Japan's Hokkaido, but no tsunami warning was issued, limiting immediate market impact. On the political front, Senator Tillis has signaled support for Kevin Warsh as Trump's pick for Fed Chair, removing a key obstacle to his confirmation, which could signal a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy. The White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting is a major news story but has limited direct market implications beyond potential short-term volatility. Meta's planned layoffs (10% of workforce) are confirmed but not new in this window. Iran continues to load crude despite the blockade, with 4.6 million barrels loaded and more slipping past, suggesting supply is not fully cut off, which may cap oil price gains.