WS #6049

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Iran conflict, with peace talks stalling and the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed for a third month. Oil prices surged again, with Brent crude crossing $107 and WTI near $97, after Trump cancelled envoy trips to Pakistan and Iran refused to negotiate under threat. Citi raised its Brent forecasts to $110/$95/$80 for Q2/Q3/Q4 2026, warning of potential $150/bbl. Goldman Sachs also raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $90. The supply shock is now in its third month, with daily transits near zero, raising global inflation concerns. Separately, Apple iPhone sales in China surged in Q1 2026, bucking a shrinking market, while Alphabet is reportedly planning next-gen AI chips that could challenge NVIDIA's dominance. Oracle popped 11% leading a software rally. The BOJ is expected to hold rates this week, with the yen teetering near intervention levels. Overall, the narrative is ESCALATING geopolitical risk with oil price implications, partially countered by a fresh Iran proposal to open the strait (Axios), but with no de-escalation in sight.