WS #6119

The dominant market theme remains the Iran-US conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing to disrupt global energy supplies. Oil prices surged again (Brent +2.75% to $108.23, WTI +2.09% to $96.37) as diplomatic efforts stalled. The US is reviewing an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait in exchange for deferring nuclear talks, but Secretary of State Rubio rejected any normalization of Iranian tolls on the waterway. The UN Secretary-General warned of a potential global food and energy crisis. This geopolitical uncertainty is driving a mixed market session: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record highs (+0.12% and +0.20% respectively) buoyed by tech earnings optimism, while the Dow dipped 0.13%. Gold was little changed near $4,693 as traders weighed the geopolitical risks against expectations of prolonged high US interest rates. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its meeting this week, with Chair Powell's term potentially ending. In corporate news, Nvidia's market cap hit a record $5.26 trillion, closing up 4%, while Microsoft and OpenAI announced a major restructuring of their partnership, ending exclusivity and allowing OpenAI to use competing cloud platforms. The Trump assassination attempt story continues to develop with formal charges filed, but this is a political story with limited direct market impact beyond potential volatility in media stocks. The overall narrative is one of ESCALATING energy crisis risk offset by resilient tech sector momentum. Key developments in this window include: (1) China blocked Meta's acquisition of AI startup Manus, citing national security concerns, which could impact Meta's AI strategy and signal increased regulatory scrutiny on cross-border AI deals. (2) Shell announced a $13.6 billion acquisition of Canadian gas producer ARC Resources, the largest deal in over a decade, signaling confidence in long-term natural gas demand. (3) The US Justice Department filed federal charges against the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooter, but this is a political story with limited direct market impact. (4) Oil prices remain elevated with the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing, though the US is reviewing an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait. (5) Celestica reported 53% revenue growth and raised full-year guidance again, driven by AI data center demand, but the stock fell 8% after hours as the beat was less pronounced than in prior quarters.