WS #6132

The dominant theme remains the Iran conflict, with oil prices surging to $110/barrel as diplomatic efforts stall. Trump is reportedly unhappy with Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without addressing nuclear talks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. The BOJ held rates but with a 6-3 split vote, signaling a hawkish tilt and a 74% probability of a June hike, strengthening the yen. BP reported a massive Q1 profit beat ($3.2B vs $1.38B YoY) driven by the Iran war, confirming the bullish energy thesis. In tech, Google signed a classified AI deal with the Pentagon, while China ordered Meta to unwind its Manus acquisition, creating counter-signals in the AI narrative. Nvidia's market cap hit a record $5.26T, surpassing Apple and Google, driven by AI infrastructure spending. The Fed meeting this week is expected to hold rates steady, but Powell's comments on inflation and his future role will be closely watched. The attempted assassination of Trump adds political uncertainty but is unlikely to materially shift markets near-term. Overall, the narrative is ESCALATING on geopolitical risk, with energy stocks benefiting and growth/multiple stocks under pressure from higher rates and inflation.