WS #6212

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its economic fallout, with oil prices surging past $115/barrel (Brent) as reports indicate the US is preparing for an extended blockade of Iran. This is corroborated by BBC, WSJ, and multiple social media sources, marking an escalation in the conflict. The EU has temporarily relaxed state-aid rules to subsidize farmers, hauliers, and energy-intensive industries hit by higher energy costs, a counter-signal that may partially offset the economic drag but does not address the core supply disruption. The UAE's exit from OPEC, effective May 1, is a structural shift weakening the cartel, though its immediate impact is muted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. On the earnings front, a wave of Q1 reports shows mixed results: Bloom Energy surged 19% after a blowout quarter and guidance lift on data center demand, reinforcing the AI infrastructure theme. Cognizant fell after a Q2 revenue outlook miss and announced cost-cutting. SoFi missed revenue estimates despite record lending, sending shares lower. Yum Brands beat on Taco Bell strength. The Fed decision later today is the key macro event, with expectations of a hold and Powell's likely last meeting. The overall narrative arc is ESCALATING on the Iran war, with oil prices hitting new highs and no de-escalation in sight.