WS #6231

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources confirming that President Trump has rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and has instructed the military to prepare for a prolonged blockade. This has sent Brent crude oil surging past $119/barrel, its highest since the war began. The blockade is now expected to last months, not weeks, creating a sustained energy supply crisis. In a separate but related development, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, effective May 1, which could further destabilize oil markets by allowing the UAE to increase production independently. On the geopolitical front, a 1.5-hour phone call between Putin and Trump covered Iran, Ukraine, and potential energy cooperation, with Putin proposing a Ukraine ceasefire during May Victory Day celebrations and Trump reportedly believing a deal is close. However, this is partially countered by Ukraine's continued drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. In corporate news, Phillips 66 surged after an unexpected Q1 profit on higher refining margins, and Seagate Technology popped 12% on strong guidance. The Fed decision is imminent, with Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair approved by the Senate Banking Committee. The narrative is one of ESCALATING energy crisis and geopolitical tension, with oil prices as the primary market driver.