WS #6234

The US-Iran conflict and oil price surge remain the dominant market narrative, with the situation ESCALATING. Oil prices surged over 7%, with Brent crude surpassing $119/barrel and WTI above $107, driven by reports that Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and is preparing for a long-term blockade. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Axios, Reuters, and Alpaca News. The Pentagon confirmed the war has cost $25 billion so far. OPEC+ is expected to approve a quota increase of 188,000-206,000 bpd at its Sunday meeting, excluding the UAE, which could provide a minor counter-signal to the supply crisis. Separately, the Putin-Trump phone call discussed Iran and Ukraine, with Trump reportedly believing a Ukraine deal is close, but no concrete breakthrough emerged. The Bank of Canada held rates flat but warned of rising inflation due to the oil shock. In corporate news, GE HealthCare slashed its full-year guidance, sending shares down 12%, while Seagate and Phillips 66 posted strong results. The Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act, a political development with limited direct market impact. The overall narrative is ESCALATING on the US-Iran front, with oil prices at multi-year highs and no diplomatic resolution in sight. Key developments in this window include: CENTCOM has drafted plans for targeted military strikes against Iran aimed at breaking the negotiation stalemate, per sources. This is a significant escalation signal. Additionally, the UK is rallying a multinational naval force to counter growing security threats from Russia, adding to geopolitical tensions. On the corporate front, Teradyne delivered a massive Q1 beat but conservative Q2 guidance sparked an ~18% sell-off, indicating potential AI test cycle peaking concerns. CoreWeave is building out data center capacity faster-than-expected, which could drive revenue upside. Pershing Square USA shares are indicated to open between $39-$41.25, well below the IPO price of $50, signaling weak demand. Robinhood's revenue slump exposes crypto's core weakness, with crypto trading revenue collapsing 47% QoQ. The European Commission announced emergency aid for sectors hit by the energy crisis, providing a counter-signal to the economic drag from high oil prices. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its meeting today, with Powell's last meeting as chair.