WS #6237

From 499 msgs · 5 key-dev

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its most divided decision since 1992, with an 8-4 vote. Four officials dissented: one favored a cut, three opposed the easing bias in the statement. The Fed flagged elevated inflation due to energy prices and high uncertainty from Middle East developments. This hawkish fracture signals a higher bar for future cuts, pressuring growth stocks and supporting the dollar. Oil prices surged toward $120/barrel as Brent hit its highest since June 2022, driven by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and the US-Iran conflict. The Pentagon disclosed $25 billion in Iran operation costs. UAE's exit from OPEC adds further supply uncertainty. PayPal restructured Venmo as a standalone unit, adding ~$1.39B in market cap. Pershing Square USA (PSUS) opened 18% below its $50 IPO price, indicating weak demand for the Ackman vehicle. Putin proposed a May 9 ceasefire in Ukraine, which Trump supported, offering a potential de-escalation signal. The FOMC dissent and oil spike are the dominant market-moving themes.

Key developments

  • Fed holds rates with most dissents since 1992; 8-4 vote signals hawkish fracture
  • Oil surges toward $120 as Strait of Hormuz remains closed; Pentagon reveals $25B Iran war cost
  • PayPal makes Venmo a standalone unit, adds ~$1.39B market cap
  • Pershing Square USA opens 18% below IPO price, weak demand
  • Putin proposes May 9 ceasefire in Ukraine; Trump supports