WS #6250

The dominant signal in this window is the UAE's decision to quit OPEC, effective May 1, which structurally weakens the cartel's control over global oil supply and adds to upward pressure on crude prices already elevated by the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade. Brent crude surged above $119/barrel, the highest since June 2022, with the IEA calling it the biggest energy security threat in history. This development is corroborated by Al Jazeera, multiple financial news outlets, and global media. The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, but the decision was the most divided in decades (4 dissents), with Powell signaling rates may stay higher for longer due to energy-driven inflation. Powell also confirmed he will remain as a Fed governor after his chairmanship ends, denying Trump a board appointment. In mega-cap tech earnings, Alphabet surged ~7% after Google Cloud revenue jumped 63% to $20B, while Microsoft fell 2% on cloud growth that merely met expectations and capex below estimates. Meta dropped 6% after raising its 2026 capex forecast to $125-145B, disappointing investors who wanted lower spending. Amazon reported strong results but fell 2% on elevated capex. Anthropic is considering funding at over $900B valuation, signaling frothy AI private markets. The Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING: Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait, and Iran's navy commander warned of swift action against US forces. The UAE's OPEC exit counters the bullish oil thesis by potentially increasing future supply, but near-term supply disruption fears dominate.