WS #6253

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran conflict, with the US preparing for an extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and rejecting Iran's proposal to reopen it. This has driven Brent crude above $122/bbl and WTI above $106, with oil prices extending their rally. The US Central Command has reportedly prepared plans for strikes against Iran. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Bloomberg, CNBC, and oilprice.com. The oil price surge is having second-order effects: US gasoline prices are rising above $4/gallon, and Pakistan's PM reports oil import costs up 167% since the war began. The UAE's exit from OPEC adds further supply uncertainty. Meanwhile, Big Tech earnings are a mixed bag: Alphabet (GOOGL) surged 6% after hours on a strong cloud revenue beat, while Meta (META) fell 6% after raising capex guidance and missing user growth estimates. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) had modest moves. The Fed held rates steady but with four dissenting votes, the most since 1992, highlighting internal divisions. Powell confirmed he will stay on as governor after his chair term ends, frustrating Trump's bid for control. The dollar rose to 160.40 yen, highest since July 2024. Anthropic is reportedly weighing funding at a $900B+ valuation. Qualcomm (QCOM) surged 16% after CEO comments about shipping data center chips to a large hyperscaler. The Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals in this window.