WS #6258

From 500 msgs · 8 key-dev

The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran conflict, with oil prices surging above $119/bbl on reports of an extended US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, and the US is now pitching a new international coalition to restore shipping traffic. The Pentagon officially priced the Iran war at $25bn so far, mostly in munitions. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% with a record 4 dissents, and Powell announced he will stay on as Fed governor, defying Trump. Big Tech earnings were mixed: Alphabet and Amazon beat on strong cloud/AI growth, while Meta beat but fell on raised capex guidance ($125-145bn). Samsung Electronics reported strong Q1 earnings and initiated mass production of HBM4 for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform. The Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING with no de-escalation signals, but the US proposal for a new coalition to restore Hormuz traffic represents a potential counter-signal to the blockade-driven oil supply crisis. In this window, oil prices surged nearly $7 to above $119/bbl as Trump signaled a prolonged blockade, with Brent settling around $118. The Fed held rates steady but the 8-4 vote was the most divided since 1992, with three dissents against an easing bias and one favoring a cut. Powell said he will remain as Fed governor after his chair term ends, denying Trump a new appointee. Big Tech earnings dominated after-hours: Amazon beat on AWS growth (28% YoY) and raised capex, Meta beat but fell 6% on raised capex guidance ($125-145bn), Microsoft reported strong Azure growth but guided to ~$190bn capex for 2026, and Alphabet's Google Cloud surpassed $20bn in revenue. Samsung reported record Q1 profit (up 750% YoY) and initiated HBM4 mass production for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin. Anthropic is reportedly raising $40-50bn at a $900bn valuation, and SoftBank plans to list its new AI/robotics company Roze in the US. The Strait of Hormuz standoff continues to drive oil prices higher, with no ceasefire extension in sight.

Key developments

  • Oil surges nearly $7 to above $119/bbl as Trump signals prolonged US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
  • Fed holds rates steady in most divided decision since 1992; Powell to stay as governor
  • Amazon beats Q1 estimates on AWS growth (28% YoY), raises capex; stock up 4% after-hours
  • Meta beats Q1 estimates but falls 6% after-hours on raised capex guidance ($125-145bn)
  • Samsung reports record Q1 profit (up 750% YoY), initiates HBM4 mass production for NVIDIA
  • Anthropic reportedly raising $40-50bn at $900bn valuation; SoftBank plans US IPO for AI/robotics unit
  • Microsoft reports strong Azure growth, guides to ~$190bn capex for 2026
  • Alphabet's Google Cloud surpasses $20bn revenue, but growth limited by capacity constraints